Spatiotemporal assessment and prognostic modeling of groundwater level in Mymensingh, Bangladesh: A longitudinal study utilizing ARIMA time-series forecasting
DOI:
https://doi.org/10.63697/jeshs.2026.10064Keywords:
Groundwater, Depletion, Prediction, ARIMA modeling, BangladeshAbstract
Groundwater plays a crucial role in meeting the demands of domestic, agricultural, and industrial sectors worldwide. The growing reliance on groundwater resources has led to excessive withdrawal that exceeds natural recharge for an extended period due to population growth, urban development, and other environmental factors. This study analyzed groundwater level data from Mymensingh, Bangladesh, to determine the spatiotemporal pattern, the rate of groundwater level depletion, and the state of predicted groundwater level by 2050. Weekly groundwater level data from seven monitoring wells were collected from the Bangladesh Water Development Board (BWDB) from 2002 to 2023. Spatial interpolation using inverse distance weighting (IDW) and an ARIMA time series model was employed for the analysis of long-term water level forecasting. The results showed groundwater level fluctuations and depletion at different monitoring wells of the study area. Of the 7 monitoring wells, GT6152021 experienced the highest depletion (0.24 m/y), and GT6152020 was the lowest (0.09 m/y); both were in Mymensingh Sadar. The depletion rates of other wells fluctuated between 0.15 and 0.19 m/y. The groundwater level data from all monitoring wells revealed a declining trend, indicating that the groundwater resources were used indiscriminately in the studied region. The fitted ARIMA (0, 1, 0) forecasting model for well GT6152021 observed the groundwater level to be at 25 m by 2050, and the other wells be between 17.5 and 19.5 m. These results will help planners and policymakers allocate groundwater resources among agricultural, domestic, and industrial uses.
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Copyright (c) 2026 Shahrin Tabassum, Ashraf Ali Seddique
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